we are known by the company we keep

What's going on in the Middle East? Can it be that our good buddies,
the Saudi Arabians are meddling in the affairs of Lebanon?
Carl Jarvis

transcript
Saudi Prince Salman's Chess Game with Hezbollah in Lebanon
SHARMINI PERIES: It's The Real News Network. I'm Sharmini Peries
coming to you from Baltimore. Prime Minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri
resigned on Saturday,
in a pre-recorded broadcast first aired in Saudi Arabian television
and then in Lebanon. He said he believed there was an assassination
plot against him
and accused Iran and his Lebanese coalition partner, Hezbollah, of
sowing strife in the Arab world. SAAD HARIRI: I would like to say to
Iran and its followers,
that they will be losers in their intervention in the Arab affairs.
Our nation will wake up, as it did in the past, their hand in the
region will be cut
off.SHARMINI PERIES: Now joining me to analyze this unfolding
situation is Vijay Prashad. Vijay is now the executive director of the
Tricontinental Institute
for Social Research and is also chief editor of LeftWord Books. Vijay,
allow me to dive right in here and ask you what we know so far, and
you assessment
of Hariri's sudden resignation.VIJAY PRASHAD: Well, it should be said
that Lebanon has been in a very fragile state ever since the war broke
out in Syria.
And there's been a real attempt inside Lebanon for all the different
political factions to create some kind of stability despite the fact
that several
of them are on different sides of the Lebanese civil war. So it was
quite a feat that a kind of unity government was created with Saad
Hariri agreeing
to take the Prime Ministership, while Michel Aoun, who's an ally of
Hezbollah, became the president. This very fragile government then
moved forward and
in fact passed a budget, you know, just a short while ago. It looked
like things were quite stable in Lebanon as compared to the
neighborhood, and with
the Syrian war slowly winding down, things looked quite positive for
Lebanon. And then of course, Mr. Hariri was hastily called to Saudi
Arabia, from where
a first broadcast on Saudi television, he declared his resignation.
This really surprised not only his own allies inside Lebanon, but
also, the president
of Lebanon Michel Aoun, who in fact has refused to accept the
resignation, and has said he will only consider this resignation when
Mr. Hariri returns
to Lebanon. There is of course great speculation that Mr. Hariri is
being held in a kind of prisoner in Saudi Arabia, not being allowed to
return to Lebanon.
So the tension and crisis of course continues. This tension, I should
add, is part of the broad crackdown inside Saudi Arabia by the son of
the current
king, Mohammed bin Salman, who's arrested 11 important people inside
the kingdom, and has arrested and shut down basically three private
news outlets inside
Saudi Arabia.SHARMINI PERIES: Vjay, this week we saw a number of
people arrested in Saudi Arabia, this appears to be a crackdown on,
what does this crackdown,
or crisis, have to do with Hariri, if anything?VIJAY PRASHAD: It
should be, I think, seen that this turmoil inside Saudi Arabia is a
direct consequence
of Saudi Arabia having basically lost the goals that it had set for
itself in Syria and in Yemen, with the collapse of Isis, with the
reassertion of the
government of..., Saudi Arabia has basically seen its goals unmet
inside Syria. At the same time, it's war in Yemen, a very harsh war
where there has been
considerable has also come undone. Saudi Arabia has been lashing out
at Yemen, and in fact yesterday, put a total moratorium, an embargo,
on all ports
and airports of Yemen, not allowing aid to enter the country. So, this
crisis, in its neighborhood, the failure in Saudi Arabia, to execute
its ambitions
in Syria and in Yemen, the very deep crisis its own economy, with no
oil prices and so on, has created a legitimacy problem for the king of
Saudi Arabia,
particularly his son, Mohammed bin Salman, who has been in charge of
almost every aspect of Saudi rule. And what he has done in the last
few days, is gone
after every single other branch of the royal family, sons of previous
kings, nephews of the current king, the very rich in the country, has
arrested them.
It is being suggested inside Saudi Arabia that this was a counter coup
led by Mohammad Bin Salman, because he was afraid that some of these
princes and
others might have been mounting a coup against him, an unstable rule
that he has been managing, very poor execution of wars and so on, so
this was his
countercoup. Then wrapped up in this, perhaps in this tantrum around
the defeat of their ambitions in Syria is perhaps the forced
resignation of Saad Hariri
of Lebanon.SHARMINI PERIES: Now, the Lebanese Prime Minister, Saad
Hariri, and his father, who was assassinated in a car bomb back in
2005, they have very
close ties to Saudi Arabia, what hold might Saudi Arabia have on the
Prime Minister, and what do we know about what's happening to him now,
he's being
held in Saudi Arabia, some reports says against his wishes, what are
your thoughts?VIJAY PRASHAD: Well, there is one suggestion that Mr.
Hariri is being
held. Now, it is true that he has very close ties with the Saudis, so
did his father, and in fact, many people have suggested that this is
Saudi Arabia
trying to micromanage Lebanese politics. On Sunday, Mr. Nasrallah, the
head of Hezbollah, went on television in Lebanon and suggested as
much. He accused
Saudi Arabia of interfering in Lebanese politics. He suggested that
because Mr. Hariri made his announcement in Saudi Arabia, on Saudi
television, that
this was a direct evidence of Saudi interference in Lebanese politics.
So, one suggestion is that Mr. Hariri, totally beholden to the Saudis,
basically
had to do their bidding when they wanted to destabilize the government
in Lebanon and perhaps pressure the situation so that there is some
kind of war,
perhaps undertaken by Israel or others, against Hezbollah to start a
more regional war against Iran. That's one suggestion.The other
suggestion is that
Mr. Hariri has basically gone into exile in Saudi Arabia, unable to
manage the situation in Lebanon, I think frustrated by the victory of
the very closely
linked with Iran group, Hezbollah, and the defeat of the ambitions of
his bloc in the region. So whether he is being held captive, or he's
gone into exile,
either way, there is an attempt now by Saudi Arabia to put the
pressure on Hezbollah, to use Hezbollah, in a way, as perhaps a way,
to start a regional
war of the west, and Israel, against Iran, including of course, Saudi
assets.SHARMINI PERIES: Vijay, this morning there was an opinion, a
piece penned
in the Haaretz newspaper in Israel, asking "Is Saudi Arabia pushing
Israel into war with Hezbollah and Iran?" Your thoughts on that.VIJAY
PRASHAD: I think
that's a very good way to phrase the question. I think there's an
attempt by Saudi Arabia, having seen the United States unwilling to do
its bidding entirely
vis-a-vis Iran, I mean the Trump Administration has gone quite far in
its belligerence attempting to poke Iran, to prod Iran, to make Iran
do something
that would then welcome, allow the United States to attack Iran. But
that road seems to not be going forward, and I think that the Saudis
are now trying
to have a kind of proxy war against Iran, by pushing some kind of
conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.It needs to be said that
Hezbollah is a very disciplined
political outfit, and I very much doubt that they will take this bait
and go to war against Israel. Because also true, that since the 2006
war since Hezbollah
and Israel, which was essentially a stalemate, where Hezbollah was not
destroyed, which was the aim of Israel, now Hezbollah is much
stronger, given its
experience in fighting in Syria, and I think the Israelis recognize
that a war against Hezbollah is not going to be as asymmetrical, as
say the Israeli
wars against the Palestinians, that has Hezbollah will inflict major
damage on Israel. So I doubt very much that the Israelis will take the
bait, will
be as adventurous as the Saudis perhaps would like, and go to war
against Hezbollah, which they should perhaps think that as the Saudis
think, is a way
to get at Iran.SHARMINI PERIES: Vijay, I understand that the leader of
Hezbollah, Nasrallah, had very calming presence according to people on
the ground,
that he went on air right after this resignation was aired, and people
felt as if the country was in crisis, and apparently Nasrallah had a
very calming
presence. Does Hariri's resignation leave a leadership crisis in
Lebanon, and what will this mean for the politics and governance of
Lebanon?VIJAY PRASHAD:
Well I mean, Lebanon is an interesting place because its entire
government structure is sectarianism between the Christian Mennonites,
the Sunnis and the
Shia. So it's not a question that the resignation of Mr. Hariri will
collapse the government. It's also clear that in the last 15 years,
Lebanon has had
long periods where an illegitimate legislature has continued to
govern. In other words, where its term has ended, its continued to
hold office. So I don't
think there'll be some complete vacuum in Lebanon. I think other
forces will come in, the permanent bureaucracy is going to continue to
work, and besides,
it's a highly decentralized country. So things are going to happen. I
don't think this is going to make Lebanon fall into some kind of
abyss.I think the
real question here is going to be Mr. Hariri's bloc is going to do.
What his political party is going to do. He has not been the most
effective leader
of their political party, he is not perhaps as wily as his father,
he's much more susceptible to influence by the Saudis and others. So,
this might just
give an opening inside the future movement, which is his bloc, for
other people to come in and take power. So, let's see what happens,
what's interesting
is, that Mr. Nasrallah has basically given a timetable for his return
to make a comment. He's spoken on Sunday, he'll come back on Friday,
he recognizes
that this is a very quick moving series of events, and his
commentaries are going to be taken very seriously. So I think, let's
wait and see what happens
during this week.SHARMINI PERIES: And one final question, in terms of
Saudi Arabia's objective in all of this, give us a sense of what we
should be looking
out for over the next little while.VIJAY PRASHAD: Well I think that
Saudi Arabia's objective is basically driven by the fact that its
ambitions have been
routed and it wants somehow to poke Iran, and I'm very much hoping
that in order to prevent some kind of new cataclysmic war in West
Asia, that Iran holds
itself back, takes a mature attitude, that Hezbollah takes a mature
attitude to this crisis, no one gets provoked by Saudi actions. He has
now called the
king and his son, Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, have called the
leader of the Palestinian government, Mahmoud Abbas, to Saudi Arabia.
We shall see
what happens here, will Mahmoud Abbas make some kind of statement from
Riyadh? Will he also be arrested and held in Riyadh? It's to be seen
what is going
on, but what is very clear, is this is some sort of Saudi tantrum
playing across the region, and I hope other actors are sober minded in
their reaction
to it.SHARMINI PERIES: Alright Vijay, as always I thank you so much
for joining us today.VIJAY PRASHAD: Thanks a lot.SHARMINI PERIES: And
thank you for
joining us here on The Real News Network.
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